Russia expects South Stream to be built according to plans already in place, said Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov in Belgrade, while paying official visit on June 16 and 17.
His official visit served to put Serbia on notice of Russia’s expectations, and to ascertain Belgrade’s position on the Ukrainian crisis.
Whether Serbia can serve the competing interests of officials in Moscow and EU officials in Brussels is a question that remains without a clear answer.
Russia’s position is that Serbia’s dilemma about whether to suspend South Stream is a simple matter; the Russian diplomat stated that this pipeline will be constructed in accordance with signed agreements.
Asked by the RFE about the fate of South Stream in Serbia considering suspension of the project in Bulgaria, Lavrov stated:
“There is absolutely no change of plans. I do not doubt this hitch is absolutely temporary. When it comes to South Stream, I want to stress it is one single systematic solution for gas supply of a part of Southeast Europe.”
Lavrov’s arrival marked the first visit of a high-ranking Russian official to the Balkans since the European Union ordered a halt to construction of South Stream. Russian Foreign Minister visited Serbia again, first time in three years.
Aleksandra Joksimovic, former assistant to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Socialist Republic of Yugoslavia, told RFE that the high level meeting in Belgrade shows that Russia finds it important to remain politically present in Western Balkans, but also that it shows that the decision on South Stream construction in Serbia will be made by Russia.
“The issue of South Stream will not be Serbia’s decision. It did build preconditions for construction of that gas pipeline, but whether that will happen and in what manner, that will be decided between the European Union and Russia. That is absolutely clear. In order to reach Serbia, it must go through the EU territory,” Joksimovic says.
If Serbia manages to deal with South Stream and avoid being caught in the middle of what analysts like to call a ‘sandwich’ between Moscow and Brussels, the country will face other important decisions.
Although no one stated this clearly after the meeting in Belgrade, the neutralityof official Belgrade regarding the Ukrainian crisis, and the decision not to support sanctions against Russia, are very important for Moscow.
Lavrov said the discussions covered the period in which Serbia will take the presidency over OSCE in 2015, and that Russia supports strengthening Serbia’s position within that organization in resolving of Ukrainian crisis:
“We support the work on implementation of the so-called roadmap of the Swiss presiding over that organization. Unfortunately, Ukrainian leadership is refusing to implement those stances and we call upon all OSCE members to pressure Kiev in order to fully implement this plan. And Serbia will preside in a year that will be very important, and we hope the process named ‘Helsinki +40[B5] ’ will result in the development of an agreement which will promote a new approach toward the unity of Europe,” stressed Lavrov.
Belgrade as possible mediator?
Russian expectations of Serbia’s future role in the OSCE are mostly connected to the larger nation’s assessment that Belgrade, which enjoys the trust of the parties involved, and that it could act as a mediator between Brussels and Moscow.
Joksimovic says that Serbia does not have “a magic wand” and that the goal of the Russian guest is mainly to request a neutral course from Serbia.
“Serbia clearly expressed it supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine, which is only logical considering its relations with Kosovo. So, those two things are somewhat conflicted. The Ukrainian crisis is an important international issue. For Serbia, it would be better not to get between a rock and a hard place when it comes to this topic. I hope that presiding over the OSCE will not represent another possibility for new pressures on Serbia to choose one side or another,” she said.
For now, Serbia indicated that all economic projects it has started with Russia will be resumed, namely South Stream. That is why it announced support for implementation of numerous new projects and investments.
On the other hand, Russia continues to support Serbia’s stance on the issue of Kosovo’s independence and the Brussels dialogue, although, according to Lavrov, Russia also respects accession negotiations of Serbia with the EU.
“We live under the assumption that the creation of new division lines is absolutely unacceptable in Europe, and we think it is necessary that everyone in Europe lives in joint cultural and humanitarian economic space,” he said.
Due to Serbia’s assertion that it is not making a final choice between the East and the West, there will be space for new pressures, demands and even offers, which poses a question of how long Serbia will have space for diplomatic maneuvers.
Sonja Biserko of the Helsinki Committee in Serbia, concludes it is time to stop wavering:
“The Eurasian Union that Russia created as competition to the European Union certainly cannot be a substitute for the EU. That is why Serbia now must make a decision as to which group of countries it wants to belong, in political, security and economic sense. This is not just about trade or economic balance that Serbia has or will have with Russia, Germany or any other European country. This is also about one[B7] organization that includes different aspects, from security to economy and the system of values.”