The Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, spoke at length about Armenia’s economic dependence on and increased trade with Russia. Zakharova pointed to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk’s repeated warnings that an EU membership bid would mark the beginning of its withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic (EEU), a Russian-led trade bloc. She said the South Caucasus nation would thus lose access to Russia’s vast market vital for its economy.
“According to some estimates, the export of Armenian goods would shrink by around 80 percent,” Zakharova told reporters.
“Armenian products would face higher duties,” she said. “All this would lead to a sharp drop in the GDP growth rate … If we are talking about the scale of manufacturing, about the population of Armenia, this could simply lead to total impoverishment.”
Overchuk first issued such warnings on January 9 hours after Pashinian’s government endorsed a bill calling for the “start of a process of Armenia's accession to the European Union.” Armenian officials responded by saying that Yerevan has no plans yet to leave the EEU.
“We feel pretty good in the EEU,” Pashinian told a news conference on Friday. “The figures you cited speak for themselves. But at the same time, we cannot help but notice the desire of a part of the Armenian people to shape options for the future of Armenia.”
The Armenian parliament controlled by Pashinian’s Civil Contract party is expected to debate and adopt the bill in February. The premier said its passage will “not in itself mean Armenia's membership in the EU.” He again did not give details of his further steps. No EU member state has so far voiced support for Armenia’s accession to the 27-nation bloc.
“Russia, of course, has some concerns about the process, but our conversations have never been and will never be in the language of threats,” said Pashinian, who discussed the issue with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a January 17 phone call. He added that the “dialogue” between the two sides is continuing.
According to Armenian government data, Russia accounted for over 41 percent of Armenia’s foreign trade in January-November 2024, compared with the EU’s 7.5 percent share. Armenia also buys the bulk of its natural gas from Russia at a price that is set well below international market-based levels.
Pashinian and his entourage first floated the idea of an EU membership bid a year ago amid rising tensions with Moscow. Armenian opposition leaders have described the resulting government-backed bill as reckless and warned of its severe consequences for the domestic economy.
