Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian’s government approved the bill on January 9, prompting criticism from Russia. A senior Russian official swiftly warned that Armenia risks paying a huge economic price for its EU membership bid.
Armenian opposition leaders have likewise described the move as reckless and warned of its severe consequences of the domestic economy heavily dependent on Russia’s vast market, cheap energy resources and capital inflows. Pashinian appears to have ignored these warnings, saying on Thursday that the parliament will likely pass the bill.
The bill was drafted by several pro-Western political and civic groups largely loyal to Pashinian. They collected last year 60,000 signatures in support of their demands for a referendum on joining the EU.
Representatives of those groups defended their initiative during a nearly four-hour meeting of the parliament committee on European integration. One of them, Artak Zeyanlian, said the EU membership bid will “increase the Armenian government’s resilience” in the new “geopolitical situation” in and around the region. Two opposition lawmakers present at the meeting disputed the claim.
“Do we understand the geopolitical and economic challenges we will face in the coming years if we adopt this law?” one of them, Armen Gevorgian, said.
The parliament’s legal experts questioned its conformity with Armenia’s relevant laws and international obligations. Nevertheless, the parliament panel dominated by pro-government deputies approved the bill. This means that it will be debated on the parliament floor on February 11.
Deputy Foreign Minister Paruyr Hovannisian, who also spoke during the committee meeting, did not clarify what exactly Pashinian’s government is planning to do after its passage. Pashinian said on January 9 that the referendum on EU membership should be held only after Yerevan and the EU work out a “roadmap” to Armenia’s accession to the bloc. No EU member state has officially voiced support for such a prospect so far.
Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk stated later on January 9 that the launch of the accession process marks the “beginning of Armenia's withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union,” a Russian-led trace bloc. That exit, he said, would push up the cost of Russian natural gas and food imported by Armenia and cause a sharp decline in Armenian exports.
Armenian officials responded by emphasizing that Yerevan has no plans yet to leave the EEU. Overchuk reiterated his warnings afterwards, however.
According to Armenian government data, Russia accounted for over 41 percent of Armenia’s foreign trade in January-November 2024, compared with the EU’s 7.5 percent share. Russia is also Armenia’s principal supplier of natural gas and nuclear fuel.
Armenia pays the Gazprom giant $165 per thousand cubic meters of Russian gas used by not only power plants and households but also the vast majority of car owners in the country. Wholesale gas prices in the EU are currently three times higher than that.