"Besides, we see that intensive military exercises are conducted [in Azerbaijan,] and we see intensive [cargo] flights from other countries, which are most likely transporting military equipment to Baku,” Grigorian told reporters.
Azerbaijani President Aliyev threatened earlier this month to put an end to “fascism” in Armenia and to forcibly open a land corridor through Armenia’s strategic Syunik region to Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan exclave. He also reiterated multiple preconditions for signing a peace deal with Armenia, including a change of the Armenian constitution and an end to Yerevan’s arms acquisitions.
Armenian pundits have construed that as a further indication that Azerbaijan is gearing up for a large-scale invasion of Armenia. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has likewise said that Baku may be preparing the ground for “unhindered aggression” against his country.
However, Armenia’s recently established Foreign Intelligence Service (FIS) played down the risk of such aggression in a report released earlier on Thursday.
“Based on the analysis of various facts, information, and phenomena, as of the time of publication of this report, we do not assess the likelihood of a large-scale military attack by Azerbaijan against Armenia as high,” said the report.
Gegham Manukian, an Armenian opposition parliamentarian, decried this conclusion, saying that the Azerbaijani pro-government media is already portraying it as proof that “Azerbaijan does not pursue a bellicose policy on Armenia.” He called the FIS report an “essay” not based on facts and in-depth analysis.
“Armenia’s Defense Ministry and National Security have intelligence services … None of them were involved in the preparation of this report,” Manukian told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service.
At the same time, the report suggested that Baku will maintain “the risk of local tensions and escalation at the border” to ratchet up pressure on Yerevan. It said that a “smooth” delimitation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border would reduce that risk.
Manukian claimed that the FIS is thus justifying more territorial and other concessions to Baku which Pashinian is ready to make in response to Aliyev’s threats.
Armenian opposition leaders have for years warned that his appeasement policy cannot bring a lasting peace. Pashinian insists that he will stick to his “peace agenda.”
