Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk said late on Thursday that possible accession to the EU is “incompatible” with Armenia’s continued membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), a Russian-led trade bloc that gives it tariff-free access to Russia’s vast market. The South Caucasus nation would also have to pay much more for Russian energy resources and food, he said.
The government approved earlier on Thursday a bill on the “start of a process of Armenia's accession to the European Union” drafted by several pro-Western political and civic groups. The Armenian parliament has not yet scheduled a debate on the bill.
“After the adoption of this law we will have to discuss with the EU roadmaps which are envisaged by them and us and jointly develop a roadmap,” Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said during cabinet meeting in Yerevan. That would be followed by an Armenian referendum on EU membership, he said.
“We consider the beginning of the discussion in Armenia of the draft law ‘On the launch of the process of joining the European Union’ as the beginning of Armenia's withdrawal from the EEU,” Overchuk told Russian media. “The Russian Federation will build its economic policy towards Armenia taking this circumstance into account.”
That withdrawal, he warned, would push up the cost of Russian natural gas and food imported by Armenia and cause a sharp decline in Armenian exports.
“Thus, ordinary people will lose income, work and will pay more for the most necessary things. In return, they will most likely get a visa-free [regime with EU countries] and Armenia will get depopulation,” added Overchuk.
Pashinian made no mention on Thursday of Armenia’s possible exit from the EEU. His press office on Friday referred an RFE/RL inquiry about such a possibility to the Armenian Foreign Ministry. The latter did not comment on it in the following hours.
As recently as on December 13, Pashinian again praised the EEU, saying that the bloc has contributed to robust economic growth in Armenia.
Russia accounted for around 42 percent of Armenia’s foreign trade in January-October 2024, compared with the EU’s 7.3 percent share in the total. Russian-Armenian trade has skyrocketed since 2022, with Armenian entrepreneurs taking advantage of Western sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
Russia is also Armenia’s principal supplier of natural gas and nuclear fuel. Armenia pays the Gazprom giant $165 per thousand cubic meters of Russian gas used by not only power plants and households but also the vast majority of car owners in the country. Wholesale gas prices in the EU are currently three times higher than that.
Arman Yeghoyan, the pro-government chairman of the Armenian parliament committee on European integration, admitted on Friday that Yerevan will have to choose between the EU and the EEU.
“If we reach a point of joining that [EU] customs union or have the kind of a free-trade agreement [with the EU] that Georgia or Moldovan have, then yes, that issue will arise,” Yeghoyan told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service.
Overchuk’s comments suggest that Pashinian’s administration will have to make such a choice earlier. The Russian vice-premier said that the authors of the bill approved by it should have added a clause stipulating the termination of Armenia’s EEU membership.